Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the impacts of climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), sea level rise due to climate change ranges from 0.8-1 meter until 2100. This means that over the next 80 years, sea level rise is estimated to reach around 1 cm per year. This sea level rise is most threatening to coastal areas, in Indonesia itself there are already many coastal areas that are threatened, especially in the North Coast (pantura) coastal area. The Greenpeace East Asia report also reports on 7 coastal cities in Asia that are threatened with sinking by 2030, Jakarta is in second place in the report. According to the Greenpeace report, Jakarta faces a double threat from sea level rise and sinking, almost 17% of Jakarta's total land area is below the level where sea water can rise if a 10-year flood occurs in 2030 which carries a potential risk to GDP of 68 billion USD (GreenpeaceIndonesia, 2021).
Predictions about Jakarta sinking were also conveyed by the non-profit organization Climate Central. Based on the Climate Central website, we can see that Jakarta is predicted to sink in 2030, which is marked in red on the related projection map. The areas included in the prediction include North Jakarta, West Jakarta, and Central Jakarta (ClimateCentral, 2021). A real example of rising sea levels in the Jakarta area today is the Waladuna Mosque which can no longer be used due to being submerged in seawater since 2009.
The issue of Jakarta sinking has been discussed quite often in recent years. Many argue that this condition is due to the dense population of people in DKI Jakarta. Based on the data, above an area of 661.23 square kilometers there is a population of 11,249,585 people as of June 2022 (Kusnandar, 2022). With this population density, it certainly encourages the provision of buildings and increases the possibility of groundwater exploitation for people living in Jakarta, so the analogy that arises is the issue of Jakarta sinking due to the dense population and the burden of buildings there. So that it will trigger the sinking of Jakarta due to land subsidence.
A similar statement was also made by the Deputy Governor of DKI Jakarta, Rizal Patria, according to him the effort to move the National Capital (IKN) from Jakarta to East Kalimantan is a step to reduce the decline in groundwater levels "Because there is a shift in the number of residents in Jakarta to the IKN. That is a reduction. Moving the capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan, among other things, is reducing the burden on DKI Jakarta including the burden of groundwater decline". He also believes that the relocation of the IKN which will later be followed by the transfer of 1 million State Civil Apparatus (ASN) will help reduce the use of groundwater which will suppress the rate of land subsidence. This statement is not wrong, but not entirely true. According to the Middle Researcher of Pusriskel Tubagus Solihuddin, the sinking of Jakarta is caused by climate change and land subsidence. According to BMKG, climate change causes El Nino (long dry season) and La Nina (long rainy season) to increase in intensity, this condition will trigger a long drought which triggers excessive use of groundwater or excess long water which has an impact on the inundation of coastal areas due to water discharge from downstream, water that fills upstream and tidal water. The rise in sea level is also a trigger for this issue. In line with this, massive land subsidence in Jakarta has also triggered the sinking of Jakarta (CNNIndonesia, 2021).
The issue of Jakarta sinking was responded to by the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government with a policy to prevent this issue, a policy aimed at preventing Jakarta from sinking in line with the 2017-2022 regional medium-term development plan (RPJMD). There are two policies, the first is to build coastal embankments on the coast of Jakarta, including in Kamal Muara, Muara Baru, Cilincing, and others which collaborate with the Ministry of PUPR. Second, is the control of groundwater extraction in accordance with the Regulation of the Governor of DKI Jakarta Province No. 93 of 2021 concerning groundwater-free zones (Silvia, 2022).
The impact of climate change in the form of rising sea levels is a real threat that triggers the sinking of Jakarta. It is undeniable that climate change is a real phenomenon and needs to be addressed together. The policy of building coastal embankments on the coast of Jakarta carried out by the Jakarta Provincial Government is one of the good responses to overcome the increase in sea levels. Then the idea that by moving the population will overcome the sinking of Jakarta seems less appropriate, because in fact the sinking of Jakarta is not only caused by land subsidence, but is also influenced by climate change, especially the impact of increasing sea levels.
Then, with the possibility of rising sea levels due to climate change, it has the potential to submerge coastal areas. The possibility of coastal areas sinking also has an impact on several sectors. First, the sinking of coastal areas certainly reduces the existing land area. Second, the areas that are estimated to sink will be below sea level, so that the area cannot be developed into an industrial sector or tourism sector. Third, the industrial and port areas which are important economic sectors in a region or nationally are not optimal or paralyzed. Fourth, the social and economic activities of the community in coastal areas are disrupted or hampered. Fifth, there is a possibility of reduced investment funds flowing into the area, due to the risk of rising sea levels.
With the five descriptions of threats due to rising sea levels above, the flow of influence can be projected as follows: Disruption or reduction in the development sector and industrial sector in coastal areas will result in low labor absorption. Low labor absorption means increasing unemployment rates, based on these conditions, the community's economy will also decline which will later have an impact on decreasing the community's standard of living.
The prediction of Jakarta sinking in 2030 reported by Greenpeace East Asia and Climate Central is a serious prediction for Indonesia. Jakarta is still a region with promising development and economy compared to other regions in Indonesia. The relocation of the nation's capital to Kalimantan does not necessarily mean that the coastal areas of Jakarta will lose various economic sectors there. Therefore, a targeted response from the government and society is needed so that the issue of rising sea levels that has the potential to sink Jakarta does not actually happen. Moreover, if the sea level continues to rise and sinks most of Jakarta, there will be a domino effect of losing land areas, the final impact of which is expected to affect the economy and increase unemployment.
Both policies implemented by the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government in the form of building coastal embankments on the coast of Jakarta and controlling groundwater extraction are good policies. With the note that the process of building coastal embankments is carried out quickly and precisely because if the construction is slow, then more land areas will be inundated by seawater, then if it is not done properly, then this embankment may not work as expected. The government must also be firm and continue to educate the public to use water properly so as not to further exploit groundwater. If existing policies are carried out optimally, then we can slow down the prediction and even escape this prediction. Thus it can be understood, climate change is not just empty talk, but a real phenomenon and requires seriousness and cooperation from all parties in handling it.[Apprentice: Sabrina]
References
ClimateCentral. (2021). Land Below 1.0 Meters of Water. Retrieved from Climate Central: https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/12/106.8876/-6.2164/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&refresh=true&water_level=1.0&water_unit=m
CNNIndonesia. (2021, September 2). Dua Solusi Peneliti untuk Cegah Jakarta Tenggelam 2050. Retrieved from CNN Indonesia: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20210902195435-185-689062/dua-solusi-peneliti-untuk-cegah-jakarta-tenggelam-2050
GreenpeaceIndonesia. (2021, June 24). Kenaikan Permukaan Laut Menimbulkan Ancaman Ekonomi yang Besar bagi Kota-kota Pesisir Asia. Retrieved from Greenpeace Indonesia: https://www.greenpeace.org/indonesia/siaran-pers/45058/kenaikan-permukaan-laut-menimbulkan-ancaman-ekonomi-yang-besar-bagi-kota-kota-pesisir-asia/
Kusnandar, V. B. (2022, October 09). databoks. Retrieved from Jakarta Pusat Jadi Wilayah Terpadat di Ibu Kota per Juni 2022: https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2022/10/09/jakarta-pusat-jadi-wilayah-terpadat-di-ibu-kota-per-juni-2022
Silvia. (2022, August 8). Ini Langkah Pemprov DKI untuk Cegah Jakarta Tenggelam di 2050. Retrieved from Detik News: https://news.detik.com/berita/d-6223075/ini-langkah-pemprov-dki-untuk-cegah-jakarta-tenggelam-di-2050
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